Illegal Immigration Takes A Dive

The Pew Hispanic Center reported on Wednesday that the nation’s illegal immigration population was down 8 percent as of March 2009, the first major decrease in the illegal immigrant population in 20 years. According to the report, there were 11.1 million illegal immigrants in the United States as of March 2009, down from a modern peak of 12 million in March 2007.

As we’ve discussed in previous posts, immigration declined from 2007 to 2008. The new Pew report simply confirms that the decrease in the illegal immigrant population is continuing. Not coincidentally, U.S. unemployment remains stubbornly high and the economy is still in the doldrums, offering less opportunity for potential immigrants -- who increasingly choose to stay home until the U.S. economy improves.

Although it’s not exact, the Great Recession (started December 2007) and the modern peak of illegal immigration (March 2007) share an uncanny timing.   Illegal immigrant labor, though not legally recognized as such, is an integral part of the U.S. economy. When the economy grows, generating white-collar, high-paying jobs, there is a commensurate growth in jobs requiring low-skill labor, some of which are filled by illegal immigrants. Likewise, when the economy tanks, illegal immigrants are the first to go.

The anti-immigration Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) hailed the drop in the illegal immigrant population as a victory for enforcement. But as most experts view the recession as the main cause of the immigration decrease, the only proven way to lower illegal immigration would be to keep the economy weak for another couple of decades. Although this may appeal to CIS and some other Americans, most of us probably don’t want 20 years of 10 percent unemployment as a means of reducing illegal immigration.

The report also confirmed that while the “flow” of illegal immigration from Mexico decreased from an average of 500,000 per year during the early part of the decade to 150,000 annually from 2007-2009; the “stock” of Mexican immigrants in the United States has largely remained the same. With the Mexican economy as slow as the U.S. economy, there has not been a mass return migration.

Finally, the report noted that the percentage of illegal immigrants from Mexico increased to 60% of the total illegal immigrant population. While illegal immigrants from other parts of Latin America were more likely to return to their home countries over the past several years, the Mexican illegal immigrant population stayed put.

As Pia Orrenius, senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, stated regarding the millions of illegal Mexican immigrants that are hunkering down and waiting for the economy to improve, “They are settled here. It is going to take more than a business cycle for them to move back to Mexico."

As policymakers return from recess to continue discussions on immigration reform, Mexico deserves particular focus and consideration. Currently, U.S.-Mexican relations are dominated by security and enforcement, both on the border and inside Mexico though the Merida Initiative.

U.S. foreign assistance to Mexico that includes development to reduce migration pressures could generate multiple foreign policy and domestic policy benefits and address illegal immigration at its source.