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Greatest threat to recovery: caution
The economy is growing again, albeit anemically. The Bureau of Economic Analysis recently downgraded 2009 third quarter growth from 3.5 to 2.8 percent. Neither of these are encouraging numbers, folks, considering without the federal government pumping money into the economy economic growth would be nonexistent, or more likely still pointing south.
But let’s cut to the chase, unemployment, the indicator that really matters to most people, would be much higher. Tomorrow, the Obama administration is holding a jobs summit to talk with a bunch of experts about what can be done to reduce unemployment. I’ve seen the guest list, and it looks to me like there are plenty of good people invited who can deliver the strong message the administration needs to be hear. More stimulus—fast, please.
Call it a “jobs bill,” if a euphemism is the only way to get Congress to take seriously another stimulus, but this is what lowering the unemployment rate apparently is going to require. Without new spending by government, unemployment won’t go down because government spending is the only thing creating demand right now in the economy. There are indications that the first stimulus is already running out of strength. From the Wall Street journal yesterday:
Highway-construction companies around the country, having completed the mostly small projects paid for by the federal economic-stimulus package, are starting to see their business run aground, an ominous sign for the nation's weak employment picture.
The thing about deficit spending is it’s all about where you put the money. Do you waste it on one-shot benefits like a tax cut, with minimal employment effects, or do you invest it sustainably in ways that put people back to work? Keynes, the economist who gave us the concept of deficit spending as a weapon in recessions, argued it was better to pay people to dig holes and then pay them to fill them if that was the only solution to ending mass unemployment and stimulating demand.
Fortunately, we can come up with better options than this. Right now we should be rushing into a clean energy economy. Since we’re headed there anyway—kicking and screaming so far—now’s the time to take the foot off the breaks and proceed full throttle. Investing in clean energy would create jobs, would rebuild the U.S. industrial base, would reduce greenhouse gas emissions, would reduce our dependence on foreign oil, would help the country to stay competitive in the swiftly emerging global clean energy market, and would benefit poor and hungry people in the developing world as a colleague in the Institute pointed out in a previous post.
By my count, this is a win-win-win-win-win-win situation. And, on top of that, it may be the best thing the government can do to bring the private sector along on the road to recovery.
All the “wins” above will help to make the economy more productive and generate revenue to pay down the deficit over time. This is how we paid off enormous debts incurred by deficit spending during World War II, and notably much greater debts than we’re incurring now, and should be how we justify today’s forward-looking investments in the clean energy economy of tomorrow.
Posted by todd post on December 02, 2009 in Climate Change | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
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